First-round urban, rural split guides both campaigns as they mobilize base voters and test edges in low-turnout Senate rematch
By Joseph Morton
Dallas Morning News
https://www.dallasnews.com/
WASHINGTON – As Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton hunt for votes in their Senate Republican rematch, they can turn to a handy road map: the March 3 primary results.
In a Texas runoff, smart campaigns stick to a well-worn path: find their voters from round one and ensure they show up again, then branch out just enough to get an edge.
Those who wander too far off course tend to find out how unforgiving these low-turnout races can be.
The initial contest’s vote – Cornyn’s urban edge vs. Paxton’s rural strength – serves as a basis to chart strategies for the May 26 runoff, said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political scientist.
“The goal for both of them is to make sure they get their supporters out to vote and try to encroach a little on the other’s territory,” Rottinghaus said.
Which candidate does a better job will help determine who finds their way onto the November ballot opposite the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico of Austin.
Beyond the map, both campaigns are working to lock in endorsements, sharpen their messaging and ramp up advertising to make their case to a smaller, more targeted electorate.
And like the primary, the ads skip policy and go straight at each other, trading sharp personal attacks as voters tune back in.
Cornyn narrowly led Paxton in the first round, with neither nearing a majority to avoid a runoff.
He ran strong in urban centers like Austin and Dallas, anchored by a Central Texas base in Travis County and nearby Williamson and Bell counties.
Paxton, meanwhile, performed well in many rural areas and key suburbs, including Montgomery County north of Houston.
Taking close aim
Modern campaigns use any available data to target specific geographic areas with narrowly tailored messaging, especially in runoffs.
Cornyn could aim to peel off Paxton supporters in some rural areas by sending mailers questioning the attorney general’s personal conduct.
For much of the campaign, the senator has hammered Paxton over allegations of corruption and marital infidelity. Paxton has denied wrongdoing.
Cornyn has asserted loudly and often that he’s banking that Texans still care about a candidate’s character.
He could leverage that message in an effort to pull into his camp rural voters who prioritize traditional family values.
“Character & Trust Should Matter to Conservatives,” Cornyn recently posted on X.
For his part, Paxton might target key suburban communities with materials touting his aggressive legal fights in the name of conservative causes and reiterating his criticisms of Cornyn as a Republican in name only.
That could boost Paxton’s support in his home territory of Collin County, where he finished just ahead of Cornyn.
“Let’s get rid of the guy that represents Washington and let’s put somebody in who represents Texas,” Paxton said at a recent gathering of conservative activists in North Texas, urging them to turn out on May 26 and bring friends.
Rottinghaus said fast-growing suburban areas like Collin County have been a hotbed of activity for the state’s conservative politics.
“That is a ripe area for the grassroots mobilization for Ken Paxton,” he said.
Both campaigns can target voters who fit the profile of supporters with reminders they need to get back to the polls.
They also will look to woo supporters of Houston U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who played spoiler with a distant third place finish in the primary but had a relatively strong showing in Harris County.
He’s declined to make an endorsement, and his voters could help swing the race.
Battle for farm country
Both sides are counting on allies and groups to build momentum.
Cornyn has leaned on support from well-established interest groups, including a coalition of agriculture organizations, led by the Texas Farm Bureau, whose political arm has endorsed him.
It boasts roughly half a million household memberships concentrated in rural parts of the state, targeted with emails and postcards urging turnout.
The group highlights its endorsements in publications and online.
Texas Farm Bureau President Russell Boening said Cornyn has been a champion for the state’s agricultural producers on farm bills, trade policy and taxes.
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The group previously endorsed Paxton for attorney general, Boening noted, but considered it an easy call to stick with a longtime incumbent senator, who has been on the group’s side consistently over the years.
Boening said he has heard, and rejected, suggestions that Cornyn has been in Washington too long and that it’s time for a change.
He said Cornyn’s longevity in office translates to the power of seniority, including on the tax-and-trade focused Senate Finance Committee, where he can protect the state’s farming interests.
Paxton fared well in many of the state’s most rural counties, suggesting limits to the influence of farm groups backing Cornyn.
“We know that some of the ones that we encourage to go vote probably will not vote according to our endorsement,” Boening said.
That could reflect how rank-and-file members are more politically engaged today, with information spreading as much via social media as farm bureau newsletters.
“They’ve got their own preferences that sometimes don’t match with what the leadership is asking them to do,” Rottinghaus said.
In addition to the farm bureau, Cornyn has the backing of the National Border Patrol Council, taking the union’s chief to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address earlier this year.
The council has defended Cornyn’s record backing efforts to secure the border and crack down on illegal immigration, even as Paxton and other conservative critics question his commitment.
Other players
Paxton has support from some ideological organizations, such as Turning Point USA, founded by slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk, and the Conservative Political Action Conference.
Paxton was warmly received last month when he spoke at CPAC’s annual gathering in Grapevine. Cornyn turned down an invitation to appear.
Cornyn has highlighted endorsements from Republican leaders across the state, including many in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, such as U.S. Reps. Jake Ellzey of Midlothian and Craig Goldman of Fort Worth.
Former Gov. Rick Perry is actively supporting Cornyn’s campaign.
Cornyn has been endorsed by U.S. Rep. Nathaniel Moran of Tyler and the Republican congressman Moran replaced, Louie Gohmert.
Gohmert, who lost a primary challenge to Paxton in 2022, said he and Cornyn have disagreed on plenty over the years but called Paxton corrupt.
U.S. Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Flower Mound, recently announced his support for Paxton, joining U.S. Reps. Lance Gooden of Terrell and Troy Nehls of Richmond.
“The Senate needs serious change – people who understand what time it is and what is at stake for our country,” Gill said on X.
Ad war heats up
A lull in the campaign followed the primary as both sides waited to see whether Trump would make good on a promise to quickly endorse in the race and push out the other candidate.
Trump decided to hold off on any endorsement after Paxton said he would consider stepping aside if Senate Republicans abandoned the filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act, a voter ID bill.
The rival camps continue to drop ads featuring AI-generated videos.
One ad from a pro-Cornyn super PAC shows a fake Paxton swiping on dating app profiles and accuses his office of providing grant money to left-leaning organizations.
A Paxton ad depicts a fake Cornyn clad in a tropical shirt and sunhat relaxing on the beach. The ad narrator says the SAVE America Act is stalled in Washington while Cornyn is off on vacation.
Those ads and more have made this Senate primary the most expensive in U.S. history as the candidates busted through advertising spending records back in February.
Early voting in the runoff starts May 18.
April 11, 2026
Washington Bureau
Joseph Morton covers the intersection of business and politics in the Washington Bureau. Before joining The News, Joseph worked for CQ Roll Call and the Omaha World-Herald. He graduated from the University of Missouri School of Journalism.
This story, originally published in The Dallas Morning News, is reprinted as part of a collaborative partnership between The Dallas Morning News and Texas Metro News. The partnership seeks to boost coverage of Dallas’ communities of color, particularly in southern Dallas.
