If Crockett leaves the U.S. House, Colin Allred and James Talarico would have have big decisions ahead, while Reps. Marc Veasey and Julie Johnson would likely benefit.
By Gromer Jeffers Jr.
Dallas Morning News
https://www.dallasnews.com/
Smiley N. Pool / Staff Photographer
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s expected entry into the Texas Democratic Senate primary has reshaped 2026’s marquee contest and further thrust the Lone Star State into the national spotlight.
Crockett, a Dallas Democrat who in 2022 replaced the late Eddie Bernice Johnson in Congress, is already a national figure. Her entry into the Senate race could make it the costliest political contest in Texas history, as well as the most anticipated Texas Senate race since 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke challenged Ted Cruz.
Crockett is scheduled to make an announcement Monday about her political future, roughly 90 minutes before the deadline to file for the March 3 primary.
Earlier this week she told reporters she’s leaning toward a Senate bid, and she called her potential Democratic rivals — former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin — to notify them of her potential entry into the contest.
Here’s an early look at how Crockett could shake up the Senate race.
Allred and Talarico would have to adjust
Before Crockett signaled her move, the Democratic Senate primary was a two-candidate scrum between Allred and Talarico.
Allred announced his candidacy July 1 and already has staged numerous Texas campaign swings. Last year he lost a highly publicized Senate race to Cruz, and part of his campaign challenge was to convince Democratic voters he’s the right kind of pugilist needed against the winner of the Republican primary between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston and Cornyn — the longtime incumbent.
Allred’s most reliable base has included Black voters, suburban women, moderates and some independents. Crockett has a similar, if not more expansive political base powered by her popularity among Democrats.
Talarico stormed into the race in September and is also threatened by a Crockett candidacy.
He’s cast himself as a charismatic, principled warrior needed in the era of President Donald Trump, and his candidacy has created excitement among Democrats looking for a candidate to electrify base voters.
Talarico, whose immediate problem is Crockett’s stronger name recognition, is also known as a tough, anti-Trump fighter. Crockett can siphon some of Talarico’s support and polls show she would enter the race as the front-runner.
Advertisement
Allred and Talarico may have to adjust their endorsement lists, too, as Crockett — particularly in North Texas — would likely compel Democrats to rethink where they will throw their support.
But the current two Democratic candidates have one major advantage. Running statewide in Texas is difficult and takes time. Crockett has to build out the semblance of an organization to capitalize on her popularity. Talarico and Allred have a head start.
Crockett’s Senate move would affect local congressional races
If Crockett decides not to seek reelection to the House, U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth would probably run for her District 30 seat. During this summer’s mid-decade congressional redistricting process, the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature removed Veasey’s Tarrant County political base out of District 33, which he now represents. That district is now anchored in Dallas County.
There are more than 200,000 Tarrant County voters in the new District 30, which gives Veasey a campaign beachhead. He’s expected to get significant opposition from a Dallas County candidate, where much of the redrawn district is located.
A Crockett Senate campaign would pave the way for U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson, D-Farmers Branch, to run for reelection in District 33, where she will be favored to win. Johnson now represents District 32, which was redrawn to shed much of Dallas County, while extending well into the Republican environs of East Texas. Former state Rep. Domingo Garcia, D-Dallas, is also expected to run for the District 33 seat.
A potential wrench in all of this is the looming Supreme Court ruling on whether Texas’ 2026 congressional elections would be held under the redrawn map or the original district map drafted in 2021. If the Supreme Court upholds a lower court’s injunction and the race reverts to the original districts, it would open the door for Johnson and Veasey to be joined in Congress by a third Democratic candidate running for Crockett’s seat.
Impact on Republicans
Crockett has the potential to expand the Democratic base by appealing to infrequent voters and nonvoters. Political consultants are already preparing to spend resources in an effort to reach a broader universe of voters.
But Crockett is a lightning rod who could give soft Republicans disillusioned by the current political climate a reason to support the GOP Senate nominee, no matter who emerges.
But Crockett is a lightning rod who could give soft Republicans disillusioned by the current political climate a reason to support the GOP Senate nominee, no matter who emerges
Part of the Democratic Party’s theory is that Paxton will win the GOP nomination and his perceived political baggage — including a 2023 impeachment and a highly publicized divorce announcement from his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton — would give the Democratic nominee an advantage.
Some Republicans see Crockett as a balm for any wounds created in a GOP primary or President Donald Trump’s unpopularity.
If Crockett’s calculations are correct, a higher turnout from the Democratic base and new voters would offset any problem she has with conservative voters.
The Howard University graduate and Chicago native has covered four presidential campaigns and written extensively about local, state and national politics. Before The News, he was a reporter at The Kansas City Star and The Chicago Defender. You can catch Gromer every Sunday at 8:30 a.m. on NBC 5’s Lone Star Politics.
This story, originally published in The Dallas Morning News, is reprinted as part of a collaborative partnership between The Dallas Morning News and Texas Metro News. The partnership seeks to boost coverage of Dallas’ communities of color, particularly in southern Dallas.
