By Justice B. Hill
NABJ Black News & Views
Vice President Kamala Harris has animated Black voters who were hesitant to back President Joe Biden for re-election and has now pulled into a virtual dead-heat with former President Donald Trump in the race to capture the White House.
According to the latest Pew Research Center survey, conducted from Aug. 5-11, Harris and her campaign have turned around the party’s prospects for retaining control of the executive branch.
To defeat Trump, Harris must rely on strong support of Black voters, who historically lean toward the policies of the Democratic Party.
“When you’re looking at party loyalty by the numbers, the most loyal bloc by far are African Americans,” Justin Buchler, an associate professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University, told Black News & Views. “In most general elections, it’s somewhere around 90 percent loyalty to the Democratic Party.”
The Pew survey didn’t show that 90 percent yet, but it did show that 77 percent of Black voters said they would vote for Harris; 13 percent for Trump; and 7 percent for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who announced August 23 that he had suspended his campaign and backed Trump.
Its survey showed 82 percent of Black women held a favorable opinion of Harris, an increase from 67 percent in May.
Among overall likely voters, Harris, a candidate of Black and South Asian ancestry, held a one-percentage point lead over Trump (46-45).
But Democrats shouldn’t read too much into survey numbers, because Nov. 5 remains months away, said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Virginia.
“Polls are snapshots of where things stand at a given moment,” Farnsworth said in an email. “A lot can change between now and November.”
A lot has changed in the past six weeks.
Facing critics inside his party, Biden ended his bid for re-election on July 21. His dismal debate performance against Trump troubled some Democrats, who thought Biden, 81, might be too old to help the party keep control of the White House.
Buchler took a more cautious view.
“Switching out Biden for Harris,” said Buchler, who wrote “Hiring and Firing Public Officials: Rethinking the Purpose of Elections,” “I don’t think it did much at all. I think this is a year in which the Democrats had a mild advantage.”
While he acknowledged Biden’s low-approval ratings, he pointed to a couple of variables that political scientists consider in forecasting the outcomes of a presidential election. Two of them were:
- The GDP growth (3 percent) in the second quarter of the election year.
- The fact that the Democrats won the last general election makes them likely to win a second one. The incumbent party, he said, gets an advantage if not in power for two terms.
Harris has been working to strengthen whatever advantage her party holds. During her acceptance speech last month, Harris roused reluctant Democrats to jump on her bandwagon.
“With this election, our nation has a precious, fleeting opportunity to move past the bitterness, cynicism, and divisive battles of the past,” she said. “A chance to chart a new way forward — not as members of any one party or faction, but as Americans.”
Her performance in prime time reminded some convention-goers of Barack Obama when he made his successful run for the White House in 2008.
“Vice President Harris has closed the enthusiasm gap that favored Republicans a month ago, said Farnsworth, director of the Center for Leadership and Media Students at Mary Washington, a public university. “It’s clear many Democrats had their doubts about Biden following his shaky debate performance.
“The selection of Harris allows the party to use Republican concerns about a senior president against Trump, who is only three years younger than Biden,” he said.
Leading up to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last month, Harris saw her poll numbers inch upward. Before she entered the presidential race, Trump held a 4-point lead over Biden. Since then, Harris appears to have consolidated Biden’s support and picked up much of Kennedy’s, which dropped 8 points.
Seventy percent of Harris supporters said they were “extremely motivated” to vote, up from 63 percent for Biden supporters. The Trump base showed similar enthusiasm at 72 percent, an increase from 63 percent a month ago.
Digging deeper into the Pew numbers, they reflected gains for Harris among key demographics. In voters under 50, her support increased 9 percentage points compared to Biden’s previous figures. Among Black, Asian and Latino voters, her support rose by at least 10 points.
