{"id":47091,"date":"2024-03-05T01:06:28","date_gmt":"2024-03-05T07:06:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/garlandjournal.com\/?p=47091"},"modified":"2024-03-05T01:06:31","modified_gmt":"2024-03-05T07:06:31","slug":"donald-trump-expected-to-romp-in-texas-primary-but-the-stakes-go-deeper-for-republicans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/garlandjournal.com\/47091\/dmn-stories\/donald-trump-expected-to-romp-in-texas-primary-but-the-stakes-go-deeper-for-republicans\/","title":{"rendered":"Donald Trump expected to romp in Texas primary, but the stakes go deeper for Republicans"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Gromer Jeffers Jr.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Donald
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures to people across the Rio Grande in Mexico at Shelby Park during a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024, in Eagle Pass, Texas. \/ (AP Photo\/Eric Gay)(Eric Gay \/ ASSOCIATED PRESS)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Former President Donald Trump is expected to easily win Tuesday\u2019s Texas primary, putting him a significant step closer to sealing the GOP nomination for president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A dominant performance in Texas could mean much more, cementing Trump\u2019s hold on the state party, solidifying the position of his leading political supporters and reshaping the state\u2019s political landscape for years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward that end, Trump has delivered endorsements in races for the Texas Legislature \u2014 local and down-ballot contests that are typically below the notice of presidential candidates. He has worked to boost key allies such as Ken Paxton, lashing out at several House Republicans who voted last year to impeach the attorney general. Trump also has endorsed four House candidates who hope to defeat incumbents who opposed Gov. Greg Abbott\u2019s school-choice agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s Trump\u2019s Republican Party,\u201d said Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, one of Trump\u2019s earliest and most enthusiastic supporters in the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s no one that comes close to matching how he\u2019s influenced Texas politics, and that includes LBJ [Lyndon Baines Johnson] and Ronald Reagan,\u201d Miller said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Starting in 2023, Trump\u2019s campaign team worked methodically and successfully to line up support from leading Texas Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has returned the favor, endorsing candidates against Texas House incumbents who are out of favor with his allies \u2014 most notably Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Paxton, both of whom could gain additional clout if Trump\u2019s influence helps reshape the Legislature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If enough Trump-backed candidates win, Patrick and other Republicans can be expected to promote policies that continue moving Texas to the right, such as additional money for border security and continued efforts to limit diversity, equity and inclusion programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paxton has hinted at a bid to unseat U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in the 2026 GOP primary \u2014 a challenge that could receive a strong boost if House members who voted to impeach the attorney general are defeated Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Miller predicted Trump\u2019s coattails will be long enough to pull House challengers to victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s going to be a huge fallout,\u201d he said. \u201cI would expect somewhere between 12 to 18 incumbents to lose or be in a runoff.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republicans against Trump are pondering how to shift the conversation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey\u2019ve just got to get engaged and figure out we\u2019ve got to have an alternative,\u201d said Betsy Price, the Fort Worth mayor from 2011-21. \u201cWe\u2019ve got to have somebody who can beat Joe Biden.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Republican
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump talks with, from left, Freeman Martin, deputy director of Texas Homeland Security Operations; Michael Banks, special adviser to the governor on border matters; Texas Gov. Greg Abbott; and Brandon Judd, president of the National Border Patrol Council at Shelby Park during a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024, in Eagle Pass. \/ (AP Photo\/Eric Gay)(Eric Gay \/ ASSOCIATED PRESS)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

The Republican primary ballot has eight names for president, but most candidates have withdrawn and the race in Texas is down to Trump and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has been soundly defeated in previous contests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Price and former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd are part of Haley\u2019s Texas leadership team and remain committed to her candidacy despite polls showing Trump supported by 75% to 80% of the state\u2019s Republican voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFor me, it\u2019s about putting delegates on the delegate board,\u201d said Hurd, a former presidential candidate from San Antonio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurd declined to predict how Haley would fare against Trump in Texas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re doing our best to get a victory, and we\u2019ll find out on Tuesday,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s Texas rise<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s somewhat surprising Texas has gone so strongly in Trump\u2019s favor, analysts say. The state has a colorful history of powerful elected leaders from both major parties, but figures outside of the Texas establishment have rarely held so much sway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s amazing how rapidly Donald Trump has made the Republican Party his own,\u201d said University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus. \u201cIf you\u2019ve got your allies in the right spots, then they\u2019re going to be in a position to help you, especially if you seek renomination as president.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump wasn\u2019t always the darling of Texas Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2016, the state\u2019s GOP establishment rallied behind Ted Cruz and the senator beat Trump in the Texas primary, although he couldn\u2019t stop his rival\u2019s march to the nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republican National Convention delegates booed Cruz<\/a> that year when he refused to endorse Trump during a primetime speech, and the criticism continued the next morning during a breakfast appearance before Texas delegates<\/a>. Months later, Cruz endorsed Trump.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By then, most of the Texas Republican elite had moved toward Trump, and through the years that support has been significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paxton brought the unsuccessful Supreme Court lawsuit to overturn Biden election victories <\/a>in four battleground states in 2020. He also urged Trump supporters to continue fighting for the president during a Jan. 6, 2021, rally near the White House that preceded the Capitol riot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Patrick has chaired Trump\u2019s Texas campaigns and is one of his closest Lone Star advisers. In previous elections, Trump raised more money from big-dollar Texas donors than any other state, his fundraisers bragged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coming off his 2020 loss, the Capitol riot by supporters, and candidates opposing his bid for a return to the White House in 2024, Trump faced challenges that included the loss of key Texas financial backers.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Republican
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump, left, shakes hands with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott after he received Abbott’s endorsement at the South Texas International Airport on Nov. 19, 2023, in Edinburg. \/ (AP Photo\/Eric Gay)(Eric Gay \/ ASSOCIATED PRESS)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

None of it stopped his resurgence as the frontrunner for the presidential nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump kicked off his White House campaign in March 2023 with a large rally in Waco,<\/a> where he unveiled a list of Texas supporters that would eventually include Abbott <\/a>and nearly all of the state\u2019s GOP elite<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s what Haley is up against in Tuesday\u2019s primary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re an elected official in Texas today and you identify as a Republican, there is no way that you can disavow Donald Trump and expect to get enough votes to win at the polls,\u201d said former state Rep. Jason Villalba, R-Dallas, who is now an independent. \u201cThe Republican Party in Texas for all practical purposes no longer exists. There\u2019s only the Trump party.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To forcefully make that point, Trump announced in January that anybody who gave a political contribution to Haley, \u201cfrom this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA [Make America Great Again] camp.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t want them, and will not accept them,\u201d Trump said on his social media platform, Truth Social.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe real power players are on his side,\u201d Rottinghaus said. \u201cThat means he gets most of the money, most of the endorsements, and virtually all of the activist support that one needs to run a presidential campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s endorsements could reshape Texas politics<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Being the runaway favorite to win the presidential nomination is just part of Trump\u2019s clout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has endorsed seven challengers to Republican House incumbents, including David Covey\u2019s campaign to unseat House Speaker Dade Phelan of Beaumont. All of the incumbents voted to impeach Paxton.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s political reach has extended into Dallas as well, where he\u2019s backing Dallas lawyer Barry Wernick\u2019s campaign against Republican incumbent Rep. Morgan Meyer of University Park.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has endorsed Brent Hagenbuch for the District 30 state Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Drew Springer of Muenster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adding to the Trump drama on legislative races, the primaries include endorsements by top Texas GOP officials who have their own agendas.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Texas
Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick photographs Air Force One as it takes off from Dallas Love Field Airport after then-President Donald Trump participated in a conversation about race relations and policing and attended a fundraiser at a private residence on June 11, 2020, in Dallas. \/ (Smiley N. Pool\/The Dallas Morning News)(Smiley N. Pool \/ Staff Photographer)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Abbott is endorsing challengers against House incumbents <\/a>who opposed his school choice plan last year. Paxton is targeting<\/a> House members who voted to impeach him. And Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is trying to unseat lawmakers<\/a>, including Phelan, who declined to support the Senate version of an $18 billion property tax cut plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump and Abbott are backing opposing candidates in only one race: Dallas\u2019 House District 108, where Trump supports Wernick and Abbott has endorsed Meyer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump and Abbott agree on four challengers against GOP House incumbents who blocked the governor\u2019s school choice proposal. They are Mike Olcott over Rep. Glenn Rogers in District 60, Helen Kerwin over Rep. DeWayne Burns in District 58, Alan Schoolcraft over John Kuempel in District 44 and Liz Case over Stan Lambert in District 61.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s unusual for a former president to make endorsements in so many down-ballot races, particularly in a state where he\u2019s not a resident. But Trump likes his role as the GOP\u2019s top leader \u2014 whether it\u2019s on the national or local stage.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"State
State Rep. Morgan Meyer, R-University Park, left, talks to Speaker Dade Phelan on the first day of the first special session in the House at the Capitol on May 30, 2023. \/ (Jay Janner\/American-Statesman \/ Jay Janner \/ American-Statesman)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

\u201cThere is a bigger game afoot in this presidential election year, and it\u2019s about Trump demonstrating his authority in races where there\u2019s already a lot of that going with statewide officials,\u201d said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s Wernick endorsement came late Monday night as Patrick was running digital ads against Meyer. Patrick is also backing Covey, who received Trump\u2019s support, against Phelan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe lieutenant governor and the attorney general have all been very strategic in calibrating their relationships with Donald Trump,\u201d Henson said. \u201cWe shouldn\u2019t be very surprised that Trump is getting involved.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even with Trump\u2019s support, some insurgents will have a tough time beating entrenched incumbents. Phelan, for example, is focusing on his longstanding ties to his district \u2014 a message helped by a distinct fundraising advantage, with the House speaker raising $5.3 million compared with Covey\u2019s almost $861,000 from July 1 through March 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The former president does not have a perfect endorsement record.<\/a> He backed Susan Wright in a 2021 special election to replace U.S. Rep. Ron Wright, R-Arlington, who died in office <\/a>after battling lung cancer and COVID-19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Susan Wright lost <\/a>to then-state Rep. Jake Ellzey, R-Waxahachie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ex-officials, moderates back Haley<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Haley has failed to win a primary or caucus, including huge losses in her home state of South Carolina and, most recently, in Michigan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the defeats, Haley has vowed to fight Trump in Texas and 15 other Super Tuesday contests. She\u2019s planning to be in Texas on Monday for an evening rally at Tannahill\u2019s Tavern & Music Hall in Fort Worth. That appearance comes weeks after her Feb. 15 rally at Gilley\u2019s in Dallas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast to a Trump Texas leadership team that is heavy with state GOP heavyweights, Haley\u2019s 41-member team is filled with former Republican elected officials, moderates and anti-Trump conservatives. Current elected officials backing Haley include Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker and state Rep. Kyle Kacal, R-College Station.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Republican
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley waves to the crowd as she takes the stage during a rally at Gilley\u2019s Dallas South Side Music Hall, Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Dallas. \/ (El\u00edas Valverde II \/ Staff Photographer)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Others include former U.S. Reps. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio, and Mac Thornberry, R-Clarendon; former House Speaker Joe Straus, R-San Antonio; former state Sen. Florence Shapiro, R-Plano; former state Rep. Linda Koop, R-Dallas; and Dallas billionaires Harlan Crow and Ray L. Hunt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During her previous Texas swing this month, Haley told The News<\/em> she looked forward to campaigning in the Lone Star State. She called South Carolina, where she served two terms as governor, a \u201cmini-Texas.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019m not going anywhere,\u201d she said. \u201cWe have a country to save.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her chances of doing well in Texas are bleak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cShe is going out of her way to tap into a desire among the dwindling number of former Republicans and some moderates that we think of as last-generation Republicans,\u201d Henson said. \u201cThey are trying to demonstrate that they are still around and that there is still an alternative vision of the Republican Party out there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurd echoed a talking point frequently cited by Haley: \u201cThe biggest issue is making the case to people that we can\u2019t replace Democratic chaos with Republican chaos.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haley has to convince Republicans who don\u2019t typically vote in primary elections to participate on Tuesday. Texas primaries feature low voter turnout compared to general elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s making sure those people recognize the importance of getting out to vote in the primary so that we don\u2019t have the rematch from hell,\u201d Hurd said of a Trump-Biden general election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A February poll by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas had Trump leading Haley with 80% of the vote. A late February poll by the University of Texas at Tyler showed Trump with 75% support among Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haley dismissed the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEverybody loves to talk about those polls, but let\u2019s talk about the polls on what happens in the general election,\u201d she told The News. <\/em>\u201cDonald Trump does not defeat Joe Biden. He\u2019s down by five, he\u2019s down by seven, on his best day it\u2019s margin of error. I defeat Joe Biden by up to 17 points. If we want to turn this country around. We have to win.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

General elections don\u2019t matter if you can\u2019t win the primary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNikki Haley bringing an endorsement list full of moderate Republicans in a Texas Republican primary that\u2019s so conservative is like bringing a knife to a gunfight,\u201d Rottinghaus said. \u201cIt\u2019s not going to get the job done.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Republican
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley (left) poses for a photo with former Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price (center) after a rally at Gilley\u2019s Dallas South Side Music Hall, Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Dallas. \/ (El\u00edas Valverde II \/ Staff Photographer)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Rottinghaus said anti-Trump Republicans may have to settle in and wait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe best strategy for moderates is to hunker down,\u201d Rottinghaus said. \u201cThere will be several election cycles where the very conservative ideology will be dominant,\u201d he said. \u201cA lot of moderates are biding their time for a moment when Trump is not as influential.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fight isn\u2019t over, said Price, the former Fort Worth mayor who in 2022 lost a primary contest for Tarrant County judge to Trump-backed Republican Tim O\u2019Hare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re going to have to get out there, really hustle, and rebuild this party,\u201d Price said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tuesday\u2019s election could cement Texas as Trump country and reshape the future of state politics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":47098,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1301],"tags":[137,2193,765,2609,20778,2259,20779,20781,20780],"class_list":["post-47091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dmn-stories","tag-covid-19","tag-donald-trump","tag-election","tag-joe-biden","tag-political-supporters","tag-republicans","tag-texas-leadership","tag-texas-politics","tag-white-house-campaign"],"yoast_head":"\nDonald Trump expected to romp in Texas primary, but the stakes go deeper for Republicans - Garland Journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/garlandjournal.com\/47091\/dmn-stories\/donald-trump-expected-to-romp-in-texas-primary-but-the-stakes-go-deeper-for-republicans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Donald Trump expected to romp in Texas primary, but the stakes go deeper for Republicans - 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